WHEAT

Wheat is India’s premier staple food and a critical driver of national food security. As of February 27, 2026, the sector is at a major turning point: the government has just partially reopened exports after nearly four years, even as a “terminal heat” warning looms over the upcoming harvest.

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1. Production Outlook (2025–2026)

India is currently on track for a potentially record-breaking harvest, though weather risks are intensifying this week.

• Production Target: The government has set a target of 119 million metric tonnes (MMT) for the 2025–26 season.

• Acreage: Sowing has hit a record 33.4 million hectares, driven by strong farmer confidence and high support prices.

• Current Status: The crop is in the final “milking” and “dough” stages. Harvesting has already begun in parts of Central India (Madhya Pradesh), with the main North Indian harvest (Punjab/Haryana) expected to peak in April.

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2. The Big 2026 Policy Shift: Exports Reopened

In a major move on February 13, 2026, the Indian government recalibrated its long-standing export ban:

• Quota: Allowed the export of 2.5 million metric tonnes of wheat and 0.5 million metric tonnes of wheat products.

• Reasoning: Domestic stocks are currently “comfortable,” with central pool reserves projected to be 18.2 MMT by April 1, well above the buffer norms.

• Private Stocks: Private traders are estimated to be holding 7.5 MMT, nearly double from last year, leading to fears of price softening if exports weren’t allowed.

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3. Prices & Government Support

• Procurement: The government is preparing for massive procurement starting in March to ensure farmers receive the new MSP of ₹2,585 for the 2026 marketing season.

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4. Immediate Risks: The “March Heat” (Feb 27, 2026)

As of today, agricultural scientists have issued a cautionary alert:

• The Temperature Threat: Day temperatures in North India are currently trending 3-5°C above normal. If this continues into March, it could cause “terminal heat stress,” leading to shriveled grains and a yield loss of 5-10%.

• Moisture Deficit: A significant lack of winter rain in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar has left the soil dry, making the crop more vulnerable to the rising heat.

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5. Leading Wheat States (2026)

1. Uttar Pradesh: The largest producer, though currently facing moisture stress.

2. Madhya Pradesh: Leading the early harvest; noted for the premium Sharbati variety.

3. Punjab & Haryana: The “Breadbasket,” currently enjoying better weather conditions than the east.

4. Rajasthan: Increasing its share through better irrigation and high-yield seeds.

   Wheat is India’s premier staple food and a critical driver of national food security. As of February 27, 2026, the sector is at a major turning point: the government has just partially reopened exports after more than three years, even as a “terminal heat” warning looms over the upcoming record harvest.

    

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   1. Production Outlook (2025–26)

   India is currently on track for an all-time high harvest, though weather risks are intensifying this week.

   • Production Target: The Union Agriculture Ministry has set a record target of 119 million metric tonnes (MMT) for the 2025–26 season.

      

   • Record Acreage: Sowing has hit a record 33.4 million hectares, driven by strong soil moisture from the 2025 monsoon and remunerative support prices.

      

   • Current Status: The crop is in the final “grain filling” and “milking” stages. While harvesting has begun in parts of Central India (Madhya Pradesh), the massive North Indian harvest (Punjab/Haryana) is expected to peak in April.

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   2. The Big 2026 Policy Shift: Exports Reopened

   In a landmark move on February 14, 2026, the Indian government partially lifted the wheat export ban that had been in place since May 2022.

    

   • Authorized Quantity: The DGFT has permitted the export of 2.5 million metric tonnes (25 LMT) of wheat and 0.5 million metric tonnes (5 LMT) of wheat products (Atta, Maida, etc.).

      

   • Reasoning: Domestic stocks are “comfortable.” Central pool reserves are projected at 18.2 MMT by April 1, well above buffer norms. Additionally, private traders are holding roughly 7.5 MMT, and the government wants to prevent “distress selling” as the new bumper crop arrives.

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   3. Prices & Government Support

   Metric	2025–26 Status	2026–27 (Marketing Season)
   Minimum Support Price (MSP)	₹2,425 per quintal	₹2,585 per quintal
   Current Mandi Price	₹2,350 – ₹2,580	(Varies by grade and region)
   Retail Flour (Atta)	₹32 – ₹45 per kg	(Avg. across metros)

   • Procurement: The government has set a procurement target of 30 million tonnes for the 2026–27 rabi marketing season to replenish buffers.

      

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   4. Immediate Risks: The “February Heatwave”

   As of today, February 27, 2026, agricultural scientists have issued a high-priority alert:

   • Terminal Heat Stress: Temperatures across North India (Delhi, Ludhiana, Lucknow) are trending 3–5°C above normal, with some areas already touching 27°C in February and forecasts of 35°C+ in March.

   • Impact: This heat during the “grain filling” stage can lead to forced maturity, causing grains to shrivel. Experts warn of a potential 10–20% yield loss in late-sown varieties if temperatures aren’t managed with light irrigation.

      

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   5. Leading Wheat States (2026 Rankings)

   1. Uttar Pradesh: The largest producer; currently focusing on “climate-smart” varieties like HD 2967 to resist heat.

       

   2. Madhya Pradesh: Leading the early harvest; its premium Sharbati and Durum varieties are in high demand for the newly opened export quota.

   3. Punjab & Haryana: The traditional “Breadbasket,” where high-yield seeds and 100% irrigation coverage ensure the highest productivity per hectare.